Methane And The Doomsday
A recent paper published in the scientific journal Nature presents a worst-case scenario for runaway climate change that would leave the Earth ice-free within a generation.
The basics are if global temperatures continue to rise massive amounts of methane gas could be released from the 10,000-gigaton reserves of frozen methane currently locked in the world's deep oceans and permafrost.
This high level of released methane reserves happened 635 million years ago when the Ice Age was placed by an age of tropical heat. Scientist feel this could happen again and real fast probably within a century.
The unzippering of this methane reservoir could warm the Earth tens of degrees very rapidly worldwide. Methane is 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas and the reserve is twice as large by volume as the world's known fossil fuel reserves.
Martin Kennedy a professor at UC Riverside and author of the study lays out the scenario,
Other geologists share his worry. Jim Kennett, a professor of geology at UC Santa Barbara believes finding climate triggers and tipping points had become the most important scientific problem of our time.
Kennett firmly believes that the release of methane form clathrate is the only possible trigger for massive climate change over the course of mere decades.
Of course other scientists are not on board with methane ice as a major threat to the climate. Larry Smith, a professor in UCLA's department of earth and space sciences, said that earlier research had allayed many of the fears that methane clathrates would destabilize and release their methane.
"The requirements to destabilize the clathrates didn’t' seem realistic under likely future scenarios," Smith said.
Smith counters that clathrates are a major climate wild card. Just last month Russian scientist presented evidence that the destabilization of hydrates is already occurring.
"Methane seeping from permafrost is something that's occurring," Kennedy said. "The challenge with it today is that we can't measure it, so we're just blithely ignoring it."
The basics are if global temperatures continue to rise massive amounts of methane gas could be released from the 10,000-gigaton reserves of frozen methane currently locked in the world's deep oceans and permafrost.
This high level of released methane reserves happened 635 million years ago when the Ice Age was placed by an age of tropical heat. Scientist feel this could happen again and real fast probably within a century.
The unzippering of this methane reservoir could warm the Earth tens of degrees very rapidly worldwide. Methane is 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas and the reserve is twice as large by volume as the world's known fossil fuel reserves.
Martin Kennedy a professor at UC Riverside and author of the study lays out the scenario,
methane frozen with water (clathrate) or gas hydrate became destabilized at lower latitudes and began to release methane gas. The warming induced by this gas stared a cascade of clathrate destabilization running up toward the poles, acting as a runaway feedback mechanism that rapidly changed the earth's climate from glacial to tropical.In the world today clathrate rates exist in Arctic permafrost and in the ocean near the continents. The worry is that rising CO2 levels could drive enough warming to destabilize the Earth's clathrate reserves. Which could lead to climate change that is more rapid than most scientists imagine and would be difficult for humanity to cope with.
Other geologists share his worry. Jim Kennett, a professor of geology at UC Santa Barbara believes finding climate triggers and tipping points had become the most important scientific problem of our time.
Kennett firmly believes that the release of methane form clathrate is the only possible trigger for massive climate change over the course of mere decades.
Of course other scientists are not on board with methane ice as a major threat to the climate. Larry Smith, a professor in UCLA's department of earth and space sciences, said that earlier research had allayed many of the fears that methane clathrates would destabilize and release their methane.
"The requirements to destabilize the clathrates didn’t' seem realistic under likely future scenarios," Smith said.
Smith counters that clathrates are a major climate wild card. Just last month Russian scientist presented evidence that the destabilization of hydrates is already occurring.
"Methane seeping from permafrost is something that's occurring," Kennedy said. "The challenge with it today is that we can't measure it, so we're just blithely ignoring it."
Comments